All over the web and media, people are making a big deal out of the Ron Paul victory in the CPAC Straw Poll. As soon as I saw the results Saturday night, I really wasn’t surprised. I’m also going to disagree with some friends on this one.
It wasn’t because Ron Paul will be the nominee in 2012. The odds are overwhelmingly against him.
It’s not because the majority of attendees were supporters. They weren’t. It was fairly split among a lot of different candidates or undecideds.
Ron Paul won the straw poll because two organizations manipulated it.
Dr. Paul is successful because he appeals to a fanatical base of supporters. They are sizable, but they aren’t the majority of conservatives, nor are they a majority of Tea Partiers. They have two extremely well-organized and motivated organizations, Campaign for Liberty (C4L) and Young Americans for Liberty (YAL). Having worked with a number of YAL chapters, the individuals drawn to those organizations will walk through fire for Dr. Paul.
I’ve witnessed first-hand what these groups will go through. Think about the Paul moneybombs and countless activism events. Do those reflect the majority of conservatives out there? Absolutely not. It should not surprise anyone that there was likely a concerted, organized effort to manipulate the outcome of the poll.
To understand CPAC, you have to understand the set up. The Marriott is huge with multiple levels. At every single escalator and staircase, Ron Paul supporters were bombarding you with information. By day three, it was obnoxious, especially for people like me who were busy running around and working.
You also need to understand how the straw poll is collected. CPAC places poll locations throughout the conference on Day 1 and Day 2. The actual instrument is lengthy and can take 10 minutes or so to complete. Note that the poll is completely self-selective. The people who take it are the ones who are either eager to share their opinion on the 2012 race or have the time to take it.
As I’ve written numerous times, I have no idea who I will support in 2012. I also didn’t have much free time on Day 1 and 2, when the surveys were collected. When I went to take the poll on Day 3, it had closed. How many people were like me and simply forgot to take it? We’ll never know.
What you’ve not seen reported in the media is the actual number of participants in the poll. There were around 10,000 registered attendees, yet only 2,395 people volunteered to participate in the poll. Barely 25% of attendees participated in the poll! Of those 2,395 people, only 31% supported Dr. Paul. That breaks down to around 743 votes. 743 people out of 10,000 is hardly worth mentioning.
While I agree with Patrick Ruffini that this is a good sign that younger people are motivated for conservative/libertarian causes and that the model of C4L and YAL should be replicated throughout the movement, it does not show that Dr. Paul is the leader of the conservative movement.
The media is obsessed with declaring that someone is the leader in order to fixate on that person and destroy his/her credibility. They want it to be Rush or Palin because those are already polarizing figures. Dr. Paul would be nearly as good because of the fringe movement that surrounds him. It’s easier to silence the uprising of Americans when they are painted as far-right loonies.
Please understand that I respect Dr. Paul. I agree with him on most subjects. The issues of foreign policy and the military are my two biggest objections. This post is not to tear down the efforts of C4L or YAL. I know many people involved with those campaigns, and they have my respect and admiration. However, take the Paul victory with a grain of salt. When you combine low participation with a group of highly-mobilized, highly-connected volunteers, it is possible to manipulate the results.
7 Comments
Thanks you so much for this post. I was losing some trust in the people who attended CPAC. I don’t hate Ron Paul either. I just think we guarantee BHO a second term with a RP ticket. He is too divisive and his followers are a little too fringe for most of us. He’s a great representative in Texas and he should continue to push for legislation to audit the Fed and abolish the punitive Income tax. That’s his niche. He’s good at it and his followers could do more good supporting those initiatives rather than trying to divide and hijack the tea party movement.
It really gets ridiculous when RP supporters start screaming that they were the original tea party movement. They should know by now that no one owns the tea party movement. NO ONE! Not even R.Paul.
It worries me with their radical nature that they are too easily influenced by the disillusioned radical obama supporters. In fact it still worries me, and I would hate to see a good group like Paul supporters lose their way, but they are hopefully mature enough to see that coming. Even from the most manipulative of progressives.
On a side note. I do see allot of similarities with the Debra Medina supporters and the RP supporters. She is one of his followers and seems to mirror some of his beliefs. The wishy washyness on the gov involvement in 9-11, and some of the language on taxes point to many similarities. Although, before I get blasted, I will point out that they have both since recanted their positions on 9-11. However, that is a position that is hard to shake off once you’ve let the cat out of the bag.
IMO, Medina would not make a good Tx governor. I also think it is quite possible that she is only a pawn for Kay Bailey Hutchinson. Once Medina loses the primary, she will throw her support to KBH, thus giving a rino some of the moderate and woman vote. These are sneaky tricks we have seen in the past and some we even suspected Paul might have been involved in. I guess, in my mind anyway, it will have to be revealed after March 2nd to see where Medina throws her support. My predictions say yes.
Thanks for posting this. I posted something similar on Saturday evening. Since I did, I’ve been told I’m on “Team Palin,” that I’m a neocon, that I “just don’t like the fact that Ron Paul won CPAC.” None of those epithets could be further from the truth.
*sigh* This is what happens when a cult of personality is built around an individual. We saw it happen with Obama and Palin, and Paulites can’t see the forest through the trees.
I enjoyed this post. I’m a Ron Paul supporter, so I was extremely happy to hear the results of the poll, but at the same time I was very much aware of the poll’s futility. With the heavy CFL and YAL presence at CPAC the poll results were not very surprising. Even so, I don’t think anyone should underestimate Ron Paul if he decides to run in 2012. He’ll be able to raise a lot of money and he’s gained a lot of credibility on economic issues. Fixing the economy will be a lot more important than the trivial 9/11 conspiracy theorists who support him. Run Ron Run!
I like Ron Paul. Individual liberties slip away slowly with the passage of many of the laws. Freedom to spend your money the way you choose slips away a little at a time with a tax increase here and there, and with the gradual erosion of the value of money (just ask your grandpa what he paid for something 50 years ago). If you think America is in SERIOUS trouble, then take a hard listen to what Ron Paul says himself, not what others try to paint him as. You will see that his heart beats true with immense love of this country. He has woken many up and they are enthusiastic about getting involved, and in many cases trying to make up for lost time with regard to political involvement. I understand their zeal.
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